Reform came within 117 votes of Tories in Blackpool by-election. But it's 'far from an earthquake'

Rolling in with a chastening set of local election results, Blackpool South’s by-election saw Labour win the seaside seat away from the Conservatives. The overall result may not have shocked many – but the battle for second caught attention as Reform UK came within 117 votes of the Tory candidate.

Thursday’s (2 May) local elections have proved a bruising night for the Conservatives at the ballot box as initial results flow in, with a loss of nearly 100 seats hailed as the “worst losses in 40 years”. But what does the small margin between Reform and the Conservatives tell us about the shape of national politics?

“A lot of Tories – especially those who are hoping that they can use it either to get shot of Sunak or drive him even further to the right than he’s already gone – will claim to be really worried by how well Reform did in Blackpool,” Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, told the Big Issue. “And, naturally Reform, will talk up how close they were to taking second place and the 17% vote share they recorded.”

Nationally, 12.4% of voters say they will vote for Reform UK, which was founded in 2018 as the Brexit Party, according to the FT’s poll tracker. This compares to 23.1% for the Conservatives, and 43.5% for Labour. Voting intention for Reform has increased in recent months, with the party presenting itself as a right-wing alternative to the Conservatives, offering “common sense” policies on immigration. Led by Richard Tice, Reform has a single MP, Lee Anderson, who defected after losing the Tory whip for comments about Sadiq Khan.

Candidate Mark Butcher picked up 16.9% of the vote in Blackpool South, against 17.5% for the Conservatives and 58.9% for Labour – albeit on a reduced turnout. Tice said the Blackpool South result showed Reform “rapidly becoming the real opposition to Labour”.

“In reality, however, they should have done way, way better than that for it to mean that much,” said Bale, warning it’s easy to read too much into the Blackpool by-election result. “Their vote share is only a couple of percentage points above what they’re polling nationally – but in the sort of place where they should expect to be doing way better than that. UKIP in its heyday regularly recorded well over 20% and sometimes over 30% in by-elections.

“So this is not nothing – it does suggest that Reform could cost the Tories a few seats at the next election by allowing Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates to beat Conservative candidates in close races. But it’s far from an earthquake.”