Bad news for Labour: Voters who feel 'economically insecure' far more likely to switch parties

People who are worried about their finances are far more likely to switch political parties, new research has found – and to vote against the government.

At the general election in July 2024, Labour coasted to power with a landslide majority. But they’ve been haemorrhaging electoral support ever since. Keir Starmer’s party had lost 40% of its voters who put him into Downing Street by October 2024, Joseph Rowntree Foundation research published today (25 February) reveals.

More financially precarious electors were more likely to abandon the government; some 46% of ‘economically insecure’ poll respondents have switched allegiance, compared to 31% of those who felt secure.

The figures spell trouble for Starmer’s Labour, who are staring down difficult economic headwinds and stagnating living standards. People who felt economically insecure were twice as likely (41%) as people who felt economically secure (20%) to think Labour is handling the economic security of households very badly.

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“Financially insecure voters are the ones looking for political alternatives because they can’t see things getting better for themselves or their children. All the talk of culture wars and immigration misses their primary experience,” said Jane Green, director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre and professor of political science and British politics.

“A party that delivers on economic security – supporting people by bringing down costs and giving people a chance to restock their savings safety net – can feel much more secure in their electoral prospects too. Without it we’re likely to see much more political volatility and further electoral fragmentation.”

As this month’s German election shows, “political volatility” can be a dangerous thing. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland doubled its vote-share and will be the second largest party in the country.

How does economic insecurity lead to political volatility

Most Brits are feeling the pinch. According to the research released today, more than a third (35%) of the electorate – or 18.5 million potential voters – are concerned about their finances.

These figures should come as little surprise. It’s been nearly three years since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine spiked gas prices, kickstarting the cost of living crisis. And this geopolitical cataclysm was preceded by 12 brutal years of Tory austerity, a cost-cutting agenda that savaged council budgets and froze benefits.

Austerity spending cuts cost the average person in the UK nearly six months in life expectancy between 2010 and 2019, King’s College London research showed last year.

The research published today goes beyond the simple metric of ‘poverty.’ Economic insecurity is a feeling arising from a broad set of financial circumstances – it doesn’t necessarily directly correlate to the figure in your bank account. Income, housing and childcare costs, amount of savings and debt all play a role.

Because of this complexity, people aged between 35 and 59 are most likely to worry about their finances and to be “volatile in their political support”.

Mid-life people are “experiencing the worst” of this feeling of precarity, said Geoffrey Evans, director of the Centre for Research Methods in the Social Sciences at the University of Oxford.

The Labour government should keep this in mind.

“In our low growth and economically uncertain society, high anxiety mid-lifers are experiencing the worst of it. There is an opportunity available to any party that can soothe the financial fears of people in mid-life as they are more politically available than the young and the old,” he said.

“These are the people the chancellor needs to keep in mind when devising her next budget. Economic insecurity may well prove more damaging to Labour’s electoral prospects than immigration, as it hits home, in the home.”

Indeed, economic insecurity can be leveraged by right-wing parties to fuel support for anti-immigrant policies.

This year, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has surged in the polls. It frames its agenda around immigration – but scapegoating thrives in an environment of financial insecurity.

Farage’s party’s plans are economically illiterate; the Institute for Fiscal Studies last year warned that the “sums in [Reform’s] manifesto do not add up”.

But feasibility aside, Farage’s claims – that Britain’s public finances are overstretched by illegal immigrants – have a simplistic appeal in a climate of disaffection and poverty.

If a general election had been held in December 2024, a poll over Christmas found, Reform would secure a staggering 72 seats, up from five.

Levels of economic precarity can illuminate these fast-changing political dynamics, said Alfie Stirling, director of policy and insight at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

“People want to feel like they have the basic means and security to look after themselves and their loved ones,” he said. “A significant size of the voting public do not feel they have this security, and this is increasingly looking like one of the big, overlooked factors of our politics.”

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