Advertisement
Christmas Special - Get your first 12 issues for just £12
SUBSCRIBE
Employment

Millions of lost jobs or a four-day working week? The impact of AI on the job market is complicated

AI may cause job losses – but also offers job creation and productivity gains

Artificial intelligence will fundamentally change the job market. Credit: canva

The robots are coming – and there’s nothing you can do about it. At least, that’s what big tech companies want you to think.

Terrifying headlines about artificial intelligence are increasingly common. AI could displace between one million and three million private sector jobs in the UK, a report published by the Tony Blair Institute declared last week. Earlier this year, the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) predicted 7.9 million job losses to AI under a ‘worst case scenario’.

You’re probably googling ‘how to code’ by now. But don’t worry: the future is still in human hands.

“A ‘job loss’ number can hide a lot of other details,” Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan, senior research fellow at IPPR, told the Big Issue.  

“For example, are we keeping jobs that we want? Are we getting rid of jobs that we don’t want? And what is the direction of this job displacement?”

“The answers to these questions significantly will depend on the policy choices we make now. The sense of the inevitability of these technologies is a big way in which big tech firms thrive… but a healthy scepticism is important.”

Advertisement
Advertisement

How many jobs will be lost to AI?

The TBI report predicts up to three million job losses – but the detail is less alarming. Growth in the technology will also create new roles, TBI predicts, minimising job losses to somewhere in the “low hundreds of thousands”.

“A common lesson is that AI is likely to increase the dynamism of the labour market by prompting more workers to leave existing jobs and start new ones,” the report’s authors conclude.

Administrative and secretarial jobs will be the most vulnerable to AI displacement, followed by sales, customer service, and banking and finance roles. TBI call for an upgrade to “labour-market infrastructure to cope with the higher rate of churn”.

“It would be a mistake to concentrate all policy direction on limiting the disruption that this will bring,” the authors add. “Any policies designed to hold back the tide will likely be ineffective and damaging in the long term.”

However, limiting the disruption is – in part – a very good goal, says IPPR’s Desikan.

“We have choice. What kind of societal direction do we want from AI? What’s important is not allowing private firms alone to decide the direction of this change,” he said.

Advertisement

“We need, for example, consultation with workers and unions about what specific AI tools can be used in the workplace.”

In the IPPR analysis from earlier this year, the implications of these choices became increasingly clear.

In a worst-case scenario, the IPPR report says, 7.9 million jobs will be lost. In a best-case scenario, all jobs at risk are augmented to adapt to AI, instead of replaced. This leads to no job losses and an economic boost of 13% to GDP (£306bn per year). Additionally, wage gains for workers could be huge – more than 30% in some cases.

To make this a reality, the government must adopt a “job-centric industrial strategy”, offering tax incentives or subsidies to encourage job-augmentation over full displacement. Areas like health should be regulated to ensure “human responsibility of key issues”.

“We called for something called ‘ring-fencing,’” Desikan said. “Take teaching, for example. Technically, lot of the tasks which teachers do could – on paper – be replaced by AI. But whether we want these tasks to be replaced by AI is a different question.”

Where there is job restructuring, Desikan adds, workers and trade unions should have a legal right to consultation.

Advertisement

This mirrors a Trade Union Congress suggestion. In their “Artificial Intelligence (Regulation and Employment Rights) Bill” – a draft bill they are calling for lawmakers to adopt – the union calls for enhanced regulatory powers and a guarantee of human involvement in “high-risk” decisions.

“AI can be a liberator, and a public good, but only if a wide range of different people, not just commercial interests, have control over how this new technology is developed and used,” the union urges.

Increased productivity could facilitate higher wages and reduced working hours, other reports suggest.

The TBI report points to the significant productivity gains that AI might bring. The technology could raise GDP by up to 1% over the next five years, and by up to 6% by 2035. The IPPR echo this positivity regarding growth – but urge that the pursuit of growth should not come at the expense of workers.

“These [tech firms] are some of the richest firms in the world. They are lobbying as much as oil and gas. There is a lack of democratic accountability,” Desikan said.

“There is a need for growth, but it’s worrying what kind of compromises might be made in order to get that growth. So, I would say that the government has to be a little more skeptical, in a sense, not Luddite, but trying to address that lopsided balance.”

Advertisement

Do you have a story to tell or opinions to share about this? Get in touch and tell us more. This Christmas, you can make a lasting change on a vendor’s life. Buy a magazine from your local vendor in the street every week. If you can’t reach them, buy a  Vendor Support Kit.

Advertisement

Change a vendor's life this Christmas

This Christmas, 3.8 million people across the UK will be facing extreme poverty. Thousands of those struggling will turn to selling the Big Issue as a vital source of income - they need your support to earn and lift themselves out of poverty.

Recommended for you

View all
Unemployment has risen while pay growth slows as experts warn of ‘cooling’ jobs market
Stock photo of UK bank notes and coins
Employment

Unemployment has risen while pay growth slows as experts warn of ‘cooling’ jobs market

Disabled people losing jobs and 'falling out of work' due to months-long waits for DWP support
disabled person working
Disability rights

Disabled people losing jobs and 'falling out of work' due to months-long waits for DWP support

Pay boost for millions as Labour raises minimum wage to £12.21 an hour – but is it enough?
Minimum wage

Pay boost for millions as Labour raises minimum wage to £12.21 an hour – but is it enough?

Pay rise for thousands of workers as Real Living Wage rises to £12.60 an hour – but is it enough?
real living wage

Pay rise for thousands of workers as Real Living Wage rises to £12.60 an hour – but is it enough?

Most Popular

Read All
Renters pay their landlords' buy-to-let mortgages, so they should get a share of the profits
Renters: A mortgage lender's window advertising buy-to-let products
1.

Renters pay their landlords' buy-to-let mortgages, so they should get a share of the profits

Exclusive: Disabled people are 'set up to fail' by the DWP in target-driven disability benefits system, whistleblowers reveal
Pound coins on a piece of paper with disability living allowancve
2.

Exclusive: Disabled people are 'set up to fail' by the DWP in target-driven disability benefits system, whistleblowers reveal

Cost of living payment 2024: Where to get help now the scheme is over
next dwp cost of living payment 2023
3.

Cost of living payment 2024: Where to get help now the scheme is over

Strike dates 2023: From train drivers to NHS doctors, here are the dates to know
4.

Strike dates 2023: From train drivers to NHS doctors, here are the dates to know