London's Black Cabs are iconic. But their future is in jeopardy

London’s Black Cabs are more than just a mode of transport — they’re symbolic of the city’s identity, with cabbies providing a vital service for Londoners and tourists, delivering convenience, safety and accessibility.

A new report published by the think tank Centre for London alongside FREENOW paints a stark picture: without urgent intervention, Black Cabs could disappear entirely from London’s streets by 2045.

This would mean Londoners would lose an accessible and reliable transport service in their city.

Soaring costs, shrinking fleet

The report highlights a steady decline in the number of licensed Black Cabs and drivers over the past decade. Since 2013, the number of taxis on London’s roads has plummeted by more than a third — from 22,810 to just 14,525 in 2024. If this trend continues, the capital could face a future where Black Cabs – a hallmark of heritage and reliability – no longer exist, replaced almost entirely by private hire vehicles (PHVs) that currently do not have the same rigorous training, accessibility requirements and environmental commitments.

The rising cost of owning and operating a Black Cab has become an insurmountable barrier for many drivers, especially since all registered taxis must be zero-emission. Since 2017, the cost of purchasing a new electric cab has surged by 39% in cash terms, with the most popular model, the LEVC TX Vista Comfort Plus, now costing £74,359.

A reduction in government support has merely worsened this issue. The Plug-In Taxi Grant, which initially offered £7,500 to help drivers purchase zero-emission-capable (ZEC) vehicles, has been cut to just £4,000. By 2026, this is set to be scrapped entirely. Similarly, Transport for London’s (TfL) Taxi Delicensing Scheme, which provided financial support for scrapping older, polluting vehicles, closed in 2022. This means between 2017 and 2026, the support for purchasing a new, accessible and sustainable Black Cab will have fallen from a total of £17,500 to £0.  Without adequate financial support, the burden of transitioning to cleaner, greener vehicles falls entirely on the shoulders of individual drivers.

A struggling workforce

The declining number of licensed drivers reflects the increasing difficulty of entering the trade. The Knowledge of London, a qualification that sets Black Cab drivers apart through their unmatched geographical expertise, has become a significant barrier to recruitment. The number of applicants has plummeted by 84.5% since 2000, with only 104 new licences issued in 2024. While The Knowledge ensures exceptional service, its complexity and duration (often taking three or more years to complete) deters many aspiring drivers, especially younger individuals who might otherwise consider a career in the trade.

The report highlights that 52% of PHV drivers have considered becoming Black Cab drivers but are discouraged by The Knowledge’s length and complexity. Reforming The Knowledge while retaining its high standards could attract a new generation of drivers and help reverse the decline in licence holders.

The impact on Londoners

Public sentiment towards Black Cabs remains overwhelmingly positive. Surveys conducted for the report show that two-thirds of Londoners believe more should be done to support the trade, while 78% think that taxis will still be part of London’s transport system 100 years from now.

If London’s Black Cab trade continues to decline, the city stands to lose far more than a cultural icon – but an enabler of comfortable, reliable and accessible transport that serves as a lifeline for older people, disabled passengers, and those traveling late at night. Their disappearance would directly impact these vulnerable groups.

The sustainability impact cannot be ignored either. London’s cabbies have responded to the Mayor of Londomn’s ambition to be a zero-emission city by investing £500m in ZEC-compliant taxis. More than half of the total Black Cab fleet is now zero-emissions compliant. However, the phasing out of government grants and subsidies for scrapping diesel taxis would derail this progress.

A call to action

The report offers a clear roadmap for reversing the decline and calls on the Mayor of London to:

• Introduce an Interest-Free Loan Scheme: Modelled on Scotland’s Switched On Taxi Loan, this scheme would provide government-backed, interest-free loans to help drivers transition to electric vehicles.
  
• Extend and Increase the Plug-In Taxi Grant: Extending the grant beyond March 2027 and restoring it to its initial £7,500 total would alleviate the financial burden on drivers.
  
• Reform The Knowledge of London: Modernising The Knowledge by reflecting London’s current transport system, roads and use of digital tools while maintaining its rigorous standards would make it more accessible to aspiring drivers.
  
• Clarify the Role of Black Cabs in the Mayor’s Transport Strategy: Recognising Black Cabs as part of the public transport ecosystem to ensure their continued relevance and contribution to London’s transport goals.

Securing the future

London’s Black Cabs should not just be reduced to relics of the city’s past but continue to be an essential part of its future.

As chair of TfL, the mayor has engaged with the taxi trade ahead of the new taxi and action plan, and it is clear there is a shared ambition between both TfL and the trade itself for the Black Cab to remain a prospering part of London’s transport system. The mayor’s new action plan should reflect this ambition and, in partnership with the taxi trade, set out a vision for a prosperous future for London’s iconic Black Cabs.

Without decisive action, we risk losing the next generation of Black Cab drivers and with them a vital part of London’s transport infrastructure as well as the benefits Black Cabs provide the city’s citizens with.

While the solutions are clear, they require the political willpower to be implemented and fully realised.

Daniel Reast is a research officer at Centre for London and Sam Pooke is senior policy manager at FREENOW

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